GSoc comments acknowledged by ONS

In a letter to Anne Milton dated 23rd May 2014 – our MP having taken up the Guildford Society concerns – the Director General of the Office for National Statistics, Glen Watson, has given some hope that the population projections might indeed prove to be overstated when new data is published on Thursday 29th May.

Mr Watson noted:

“ONS experts have reviewed the Guildford Society document which you enclosed and they have confirmed that the document is broadly correct in describing how population statistics and projections are produced.”

He comments that:

“The 2011 Census identified a very different population pattern for Guildford compared with the rolled forward mid-year estimates based on the 2001 Census. Broadly, the total population was around three per cent lower than previously estimated. This effect was particularly evident in the 20-29 age group and will have been largely due to issues with the assumptions on the movement of students into and out of Guildford.”

He concludes that:

“The 2011 Census identified a very different population pattern for Guildford compared with the rolled forward mid-year estimates based on the 2001 Census. Broadly, the total population was around three per cent lower than previously estimated. This effect was particularly evident in the 20-29 age group and will have been largely due to issues with the assumptions on the movement of students into and out of Guildford.”

It will be worth checking in due course to see if the SHMA is adjusted yet again to reflect both these findings and the new data to be published later this week.

In the meantime, thanks to Anne Milton MP for taking this up with ONS for The Guildford Society.

JULIAN LYON 27th May 2014

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About GuildfordPlan

GuildfordPlan is a 'whiteboard' set up by Julian Lyon to think out loud as part of the process of preparing the Guildford Society representations to the various Local Plan Consultations