NPPG amended to reflect new household numbers

Change in NPPG ensures both that new data should lead to updated numbers in Local Plans

NPPG
Reference ID: 2a-016-20150227
Methodology: assessing housing need

New version

How often are the projections updated?
The Government’s official population and household projections are generally updated every two years to take account of the latest demographic trends. The most recent published Household Projections update the 2011-based interim projections to be consistent with the Office for National Statistics population projections. Further analysis of household formation rates as revealed by the 2011 Census will continue during 2015. Wherever possible, local needs assessments should be informed by the latest available information. The National Planning Policy Framework is clear that Local Plans should be kept up-to-date. A meaningful change in the housing situation should be considered in this context, but this does not automatically mean that housing assessments are rendered outdated every time new projections are issued. The 2012-2037 Household Projections were published on 27 February 2015, and are the most up-to-date estimate of future household growth.

2012 Household Projections much lower

Updated 27 March 2015:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-household-projections

The early interpretation of data from today’s publication of the 2012 Household numbers is that the number of households in Guildford Borough expected to be required from 2012 to 2037 goes from 54,662 (2012) to 57,281 (2017) to 59,911 (2022) to 62,392 (2027) to 64,839 (2032) and finally to 67,145 (2037) – an average of an additional 500 households per year, and a period growth rate of 524 (2012 to 2017); 526 (2017 to 2022); 497 (2022 to 2027); 490 (2027 to 2032); and 462 (2032 to 2037).  For the plan period 2012 to 2032 the statistics show an average household need of 509 homes per year (Table 427).

As a sensitivity analysis this shows a reduction in the number of households from 2012 to 2021 is 6,574 to 4,262 (from 731 to 474 homes per year) before adjustment for local factors (2012 population numbers based on 2011 household formation rates – Table 429b).

On the face of it this looks promising.

The period increase for Woking, Waverley and Guildford is 10,377 in the 2012 data set versus 15,448 in the old data set.

We should guard against premature enthusiasm.  These figures do not take account of other factors that have surprised us before.

GL Hearn will need to rework their numbers but it was clear that employment numbers were driving the higher household numbers in the most recent draft SHMA.

 

JDSL 27/2/2015

 

Guildford Society SOLUM Presentation

Attached below as a Powerpoint Show is the slide pack and audio from the event of 21st January organised by the Guildford Society with support from Guildford Residents Associations at the Millmead Centre.

20150121_SolumEvent_JulianLyon_DELIVERED_auto-audio_compressed

Well in excess of 200 people attended and the discussion was objective and well-mannered although feelings were clearly running strong.

The file is large (about 140Mb) and the slides should advance automatically but can be advanced manually by a click of the mouse.  The showing can be ended by pressing the Escape key.