2012 Household Projections much lower

Updated 27 March 2015:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-household-projections

The early interpretation of data from today’s publication of the 2012 Household numbers is that the number of households in Guildford Borough expected to be required from 2012 to 2037 goes from 54,662 (2012) to 57,281 (2017) to 59,911 (2022) to 62,392 (2027) to 64,839 (2032) and finally to 67,145 (2037) – an average of an additional 500 households per year, and a period growth rate of 524 (2012 to 2017); 526 (2017 to 2022); 497 (2022 to 2027); 490 (2027 to 2032); and 462 (2032 to 2037).  For the plan period 2012 to 2032 the statistics show an average household need of 509 homes per year (Table 427).

As a sensitivity analysis this shows a reduction in the number of households from 2012 to 2021 is 6,574 to 4,262 (from 731 to 474 homes per year) before adjustment for local factors (2012 population numbers based on 2011 household formation rates – Table 429b).

On the face of it this looks promising.

The period increase for Woking, Waverley and Guildford is 10,377 in the 2012 data set versus 15,448 in the old data set.

We should guard against premature enthusiasm.  These figures do not take account of other factors that have surprised us before.

GL Hearn will need to rework their numbers but it was clear that employment numbers were driving the higher household numbers in the most recent draft SHMA.

 

JDSL 27/2/2015

 

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About GuildfordPlan

GuildfordPlan is a 'whiteboard' set up by Julian Lyon to think out loud as part of the process of preparing the Guildford Society representations to the various Local Plan Consultations